|
APRIL KEY FIGURES
| | Apr 04 | Mar 04 to Apr 04 | Apr 03 to Apr 04 |
| | no. | % change | % change |
Trend |
|
Dwelling units approved | | | |
| Private sector houses | 9,500 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| Total dwelling units | 14,156 | -0.2 | -0.5 |
Seasonally Adjusted |
|
Dwelling units approved | | | |
| Private sector houses | 9,635 | -0.3 | 3.7 |
| Total dwelling units | 14,296 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
|
Dwelling units approved, Total number
| Private sector houses approved, Total number
|
APRIL KEY POINTS
TREND ESTIMATES
- The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 0.2% in April 2004, the seventh consecutive monthly fall.
- The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.6% in April 2004. The trend has fallen for seven consecutive months.
- The trend estimate for other dwellings approved rose 0.9% in April 2004, following six months of decline.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 1.5%, to 14,296, in April 2004.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.3%, to 9,635, in April 2004, following a 2.7% rise in March.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved rose 5.7%, to 4,556, in April 2004, following a 15.4% fall in March.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 1.7%, to $4,252.3 million in April 2004. Residential building rose 5.0%, to $3,103.3 million, while non-residential building fell 6.2%, to $1,149.0 million.
NOTES
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
There are no changes in this issue.
REVISIONS THIS MONTH
Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:
| 2002-03 | 2003-04 |
|
New South Wales | - | 35 |
Victoria | - | -18 |
Queensland | 75 | 138 |
South Australia | - | 1 |
Western Australia | - | 3 |
Tasmania | - | 65 |
Northern Territory | - | - |
Australian Capital Territory | - | - |
TOTAL | 75 | 224 |
|
DATA NOTES
Estimates have been included in this issue for three councils unable to report all building work approved in their municipalities this month (Hornsby in New South Wales, Noosa in Queensland and Mitcham in South Australia).
A new article ‘Focus on the Victorian Construction Industry’ is available from the ABS website.
INQUIRIES
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.
SUMMARY COMMENTARY
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED
NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has risen slowly over the last five months, rising 1.9% in April 2004.
ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building has fallen for the last six months, with the rate of decline slowing over recent months. The trend fell 0.8% in April 2004.
NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building has fallen for the last eight months. The trend fell 3.3% in April 2004.
DWELLINGS APPROVED
TOTAL DWELLING UNITS
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved has fallen for the last seven months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 0.2% in April 2004.
PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved has fallen for the last seven months, following eight months of growth. The trend fell 0.6% in April 2004.
OTHER DWELLINGS
The trend estimate for other dwellings approved rose 0.9% in April 2004, following six months of decline.
DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES
SUMMARY COMMENTS
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 0.2% in April 2004. The trend fell in Victoria (-0.8%), Queensland (-1.0%), South Australia (-1.2%) and Western Australia (-2.1%), rising in other states and territories.
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.6% in April 2004. The trend fell in all states except New South Wales (+0.9%).
| | NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas. | NT | ACT | Aust. | |
Original | |
| |
Dwelling units approved | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (no.) | 1,754 | 2,729 | 2,080 | 630 | 1,301 | 263 | 26 | 87 | 8,870 | |
| Total dwelling units (no.) | 3,495 | 3,814 | 3,287 | 799 | 1,588 | 291 | 92 | 243 | 13,609 | |
Percentage change from previous month | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (%) | -10.0 | -11.5 | -24.1 | -18.2 | -25.0 | 0.8 | -50.0 | -7.4 | -17.0 | |
| Total dwelling units (%) | -5.0 | 0.1 | -17.8 | -18.7 | -24.4 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 20.3 | -10.1 | |
Seasonally Adjusted | |
| |
Dwelling units approved | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (no.) | 1,924 | 2,711 | 2,328 | 698 | 1,562 | na | na | na | 9,635 | |
| Total dwelling units (no.) | 3,940 | 3,594 | 3,423 | 882 | 1,742 | 346 | na | na | 14,296 | |
Percentage change from previous month | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (%) | 3.7 | -2.5 | -1.3 | 2.3 | -2.4 | na | na | na | -0.3 | |
| Total dwelling units (%) | 10.7 | -0.4 | -1.7 | 7.7 | -16.3 | 30.1 | na | na | 1.5 | |
Trend | |
| |
Dwelling units approved | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (no.) | 1,870 | 2,664 | 2,354 | 676 | 1,558 | na | na | na | 9,500 | |
| Total dwelling units (no.) | 3,844 | 3,572 | 3,446 | 857 | 1,900 | 291 | 92 | 232 | 14,156 | |
Percentage change from previous month | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (%) | 0.9 | -0.9 | -1.7 | -0.3 | -1.2 | na | na | na | -0.6 | |
| Total dwelling units (%) | 2.3 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -2.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 9.7 | -0.2 | |
| |
na not available |
DWELLING UNITS APPROVED
STATE TRENDS
NEW SOUTH WALES
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales has now risen for the last three months, following five months of decline. The trend for private sector houses rose in April, following seven months of decline.
VICTORIA
The trend estimates for total dwelling units and private sector houses approved in Victoria have both fallen for the last eight months.
QUEENSLAND
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last seven months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last six months.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia has fallen for the last seven months, following five months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last eight months.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia has fallen for the last five months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last five months.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
TREND REVISIONS
Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.
The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the May seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the April estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the May seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the April estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.
PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED
| |
| | | | WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
| |
| | TREND AS PUBLISHED
| (1) rises by 4% on Apr 2004
| (2) falls by 4% on Apr 2004
| |
| | no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change | |
| |
2003 | | | | | | | |
| December | 9,941 | -1.6 | 9,923 | -1.7 | 9,947 | -1.6 | |
2004 | | | | | | | |
| January | 9,789 | -1.5 | 9,780 | -1.4 | 9,792 | -1.6 | |
| February | 9,658 | -1.3 | 9,681 | -1.0 | 9,650 | -1.5 | |
| March | 9,559 | -1.0 | 9,643 | -0.4 | 9,540 | -1.1 | |
| April | 9,500 | -0.6 | 9,650 | 0.1 | 9,456 | -0.9 | |
| May | - | - | 9,685 | 0.4 | 9,393 | -0.7 | |
| |
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
|
OTHER DWELLINGS
| |
| | | | WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
| |
| | TREND AS PUBLISHED
| (1) rises by 13% on Apr 2004
| (2) falls by 13% on Apr 2004
| |
| | no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change | |
| |
2003 | | | | | | | |
| December | 4,692 | -3.4 | 4,697 | -3.5 | 4,737 | -3.2 | |
2004 | | | | | | | |
| January | 4,578 | -2.4 | 4,588 | -2.3 | 4,608 | -2.7 | |
| February | 4,528 | -1.1 | 4,578 | -0.2 | 4,525 | -1.8 | |
| March | 4,497 | -0.7 | 4,638 | 1.3 | 4,463 | -1.4 | |
| April | 4,539 | 0.9 | 4,727 | 1.9 | 4,396 | -1.5 | |
| May | - | - | 4,842 | 2.4 | 4,343 | -1.2 | |
| |
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
|
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